Extreme droughts and the Dutch water sector: impacts and adaptation

The summers of 2018-2020 provide a unique sequence of years with droughts and heatwaves, with detrimental effects on agriculture, shipping, drinking water production, energy, industry and ecosystems. It is estimated that the record heatwave and drought of 2018 alone caused a direct economic damage between 375-1900 million euro to agriculture and between 65-155 million euro to shipping. The damage on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is difficult to moneterize but has been enormous. It is expected that multiyear record-breaking droughts are becoming much more likely under climate change. Due to a lack of representative climate data, the Dutch Delta Programme, that deals with adaptation of the water system to climate change, has not been able to analyze the effects of extreme multi-year droughts such as occurred in 2018-2020. In this proposal these effects are estimated and possible adaptation options analysed. We have defined three connected subprojects that focus on effects and adaptation of the three sub-domains that constitute the Blue Route: terrestrial fresh water systems, the maritime sector and marine and coastal systems. These subprojects together provide a coherent and holistic picture of the susceptibility of the Dutch water system to current and future extreme drought and heatwave events.